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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 41
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 30
What Actually Happened
(1:28) 1-T.Etienne right end to LAC 16 for 25 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
The Three Options
GO
+0.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.92 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.40 EP
KICK
+0.30 EP
- 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
