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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 15-C.Dicker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 4, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP