Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(4:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to LAC 42, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-50-S.Quarterman.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model