Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 17

(4:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 23-J.Wilson pushed ob at BUF 33 for 13 yards (31-D.Marlowe).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP

KICK -0.99 EP

41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
59% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model