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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-01-15 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 14.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
28.9%
BUF
71.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.150 vs Skylar Thompson (MIA) -0.266 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

MIA

Raheem Mostert RB Out Thumb
Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Concussion
Liam Eichenberg T Doubtful Hand
Brandon Shell T Questionable Knee
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Hip
Terron Armstead T Questionable toe, pec, knee, hip
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Ankle
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Thumb
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Ankle

BUF

Isaiah McKenzie WR Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 31
–
BUF 34

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:02 TD BUF (8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 05:12 TD BUF (5:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 12:49 FG BUF (12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 0 – BUF 17
  • Q2 07:38 FG MIA (7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 3 – BUF 17
  • Q2 02:20 FG MIA (2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 6 – BUF 17
  • Q2 01:19 FG MIA (1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 9 – BUF 17
  • Q2 00:37 TD MIA (:37) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 15 – BUF 17
  • Q2 00:07 FG BUF (:07) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 17 – BUF 20
  • Q3 14:07 TD MIA (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – BUF 20
  • Q3 05:22 TD BUF (5:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 24 – BUF 26
  • Q3 02:12 TD BUF (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 24 – BUF 33
  • Q4 10:55 TD MIA (10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – BUF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 75%

    (12:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:05) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:51) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at BUF 33 for 11 yards (4-T.Morstead).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 23-J.Wilson pushed ob at BUF 33 for 13 yards (31-D.Marlowe).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:48) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to BUF 27 for 50 yards (8-S.Martin, 85-Q.Morris).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:17) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to BUF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines to BUF 30 for 6 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 38%

    (11:23) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:22) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:52) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIA 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-53-T.Dodson at BUF 32.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:04) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 33 for 3 yards (25-T.Jones).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:31) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki (24-K.Elam). BUF-24-K.Elam was injured during the play. K.Elam walks off.