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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model