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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 20 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model