Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 24 – Buffalo Bills 20

(10:22) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model