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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 20 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIA 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model