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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model