Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 34 – Miami Dolphins 31

(10:04) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 33 for 3 yards (25-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model