Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 31 – Buffalo Bills 34

(8:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.15 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model