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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 34 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model