Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

(2:51) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at BUF 33 for 11 yards (4-T.Morstead).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model