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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model