Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BUF defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
CIN
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:48 TD CIN (11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BUF 0
- Q1 03:51 TD CIN (3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BUF 0
- Q2 07:29 TD BUF (7:29) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – BUF 6
- Q2 01:52 FG CIN (1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 17 – BUF 7
- Q3 07:45 FG BUF (7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CIN 17 – BUF 10
- Q3 01:18 TD CIN (1:18) 28-J.Mixon left guard to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson, 58-M.Milano). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – BUF 10
- Q4 11:25 FG CIN (11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 27 – BUF 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(10:12) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 28 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(2:22) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 33 for 14 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%
(:13) 4-D.Chrisman punts 28 yards to BUF 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%
(11:12) 17-J.Allen left guard to CIN 21 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 55-L.Wilson).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%
(:47) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 64%
(:11) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%
(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis (20-E.Apple) [94-S.Hubbard].
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:39) 4-D.Chrisman punts 45 yards to BUF 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.