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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 4-D.Chrisman punts 45 yards to BUF 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.78 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model