Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(2:22) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 33 for 14 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.99 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model