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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-D.Chrisman punts 28 yards to BUF 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model