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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 19
Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3
What Actually Happened
(10:53) 88-C.Lamb right end to SF 15 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner).
The Three Options
GO
+2.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.61 EP
- 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.06 EP
KICK
+1.24 EP
- 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
- 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
