4th & Data
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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2023-01-22 · 18:30 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DAL
36.7%
SF
63.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.289 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.188 EPA/dropback
  • DAL defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

DAL 20
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

DAL

Jason Peters T Out Hip
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Knee

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Ambry Thomas CB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 12
–
SF 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:16 FG SF (2:16) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 09:30 TD DAL (9:30) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 3 YAC DAL 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 03:48 FG SF (3:48) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 6 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG SF (:01) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 6 – SF 9
  • Q3 09:11 FG DAL (9:11) 19-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – SF 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – SF 15
  • Q4 11:08 FG DAL (11:08) 19-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 12 – SF 16
  • Q4 03:08 FG SF (3:08) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DAL 12 – SF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:22) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to SF 5, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 18 for 13 yards (1-K.Joseph; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%

    (7:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (2:16) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (10:53) 88-C.Lamb right end to SF 15 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 74%

    (3:48) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 59%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right guard to SF 26 for 9 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 17%

    (11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:11) 19-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (7:27) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (6:05) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to SF 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (11:08) 19-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (3:08) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:11) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

    (:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DAL 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.