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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model