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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right guard to SF 26 for 9 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model