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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 6 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -2.11 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model