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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DAL 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.26 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model