4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model