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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model