Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(5:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model