Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- PHI on 7 more days rest than NYG
- PHI offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- NYG defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.103 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) +0.111 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
NYG
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:13 TD PHI (10:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 6
- Q1 01:26 TD PHI (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 13
- Q2 07:34 TD PHI (7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 20
- Q2 00:48 TD PHI (:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 27
- Q3 06:20 TD NYG (6:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-S.Barkley. 31-M.Breida left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 28
- Q4 05:20 FG PHI (5:20) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 7 – PHI 31
- Q4 02:00 TD PHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PHI 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%
(5:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at PHI 48 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%
(14:47) 13-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EPp(convert) 74%
(12:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:28) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-R.James to NYG 12 for -3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%
(1:27) 13-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PHI 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(5:20) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 83 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 30%
(4:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 84-M.Johnson to NYG 34 for 17 yards (2-D.Slay).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:58) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.Hodgins (2-D.Slay).