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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-R.James to NYG 12 for -3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model