Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 7

(1:27) 13-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

KICK -0.42 EP

47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
53% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model