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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.96 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model