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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 83

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 84-M.Johnson to NYG 34 for 17 yards (2-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 41, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.22 EP