Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 64

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

(2:58) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.Hodgins (2-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.62 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -2.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model