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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 13-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model