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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model