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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-01-29 · 15:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
49.1%
PHI
50.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.149 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Groin
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 7
–
PHI 31

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD PHI (9:51) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 08:37 TD SF (8:37) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 01:40 TD PHI (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play. SF 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:21 TD PHI (:21) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 20
  • Q3 00:48 TD PHI (:48) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 27
  • Q4 05:20 FG PHI (5:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. SF 7 – PHI 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 62%

    (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (4:58) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-6-D.Gray. PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 29.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:15) 13-B.Kern punts 34 yards to SF 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-27-Z.McPhearson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 20 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 38%

    (13:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:27) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SF 45, Center-45-R.Lovato. 3-R.McCloud to PHI 46 for 9 yards (45-R.Lovato; 32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:39) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 36 for 2 yards (91-A.Armstead).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:56) 13-B.Kern punts 43 yards to SF 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 3-R.McCloud to SF 45 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 18%

    (10:58) 19-D.Samuel right guard to SF 43 for -4 yards (29-A.Maddox, 91-F.Cox).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (5:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:13) 19-D.Samuel left end to SF 31 for -7 yards (32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at SF 31.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to SF 17 for 6 yards (92-K.Hyder; 90-K.Givens).