Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(10:56) 13-B.Kern punts 43 yards to SF 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 3-R.McCloud to SF 45 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.23 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model