Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(8:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model