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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model