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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 19-D.Samuel right guard to SF 43 for -4 yards (29-A.Maddox, 91-F.Cox).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model