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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to SF 17 for 6 yards (92-K.Hyder; 90-K.Givens).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.45 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model