Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(13:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 33 for 8 yards (43-J.Cochrane; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model