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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-02-12 · 18:30 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

KC
57.9%
PHI
42.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • KC offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to KC: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.142 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.226 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 22

KC

No players on the report.

PHI

Britain Covey WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 22 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 38
–
PHI 35

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:13 TD PHI (10:13) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 07:03 TD KC (7:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 09:48 TD KC (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 45 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 44, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at PHI 36. 32-N.Bolton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – PHI 14
  • Q2 02:24 TD PHI (2:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. KC 14 – PHI 24
  • Q3 09:33 TD KC (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – PHI 24
  • Q3 01:48 FG PHI (1:48) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. KC 21 – PHI 27
  • Q4 12:08 TD KC (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – PHI 27
  • Q4 09:26 TD KC (9:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 24-S.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – PHI 27
  • Q4 05:20 TD PHI (5:20) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 35 – PHI 33
  • Q4 00:11 FG KC (:11) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 38 – PHI 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:00) 8-A.Siposs punts 57 yards to KC 22, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 34 for 12 yards (89-J.Stoll).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 88%

    (2:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 33 for 8 yards (43-J.Cochrane; 45-M.Burton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 50%

    (5:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle pushed ob at KC 16 for 28 yards (38-L.Sneed).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to PHI 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 27 yards (13-N.Johnson).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (4:02) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to KC 19 for 2 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (1:48) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:33) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at PHI 5 for 65 yards (8-A.Siposs).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (:11) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.