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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle pushed ob at KC 16 for 28 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model