Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(1:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to PHI 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 27 yards (13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model