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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to KC 19 for 2 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.70 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model