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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at PHI 5 for 65 yards (8-A.Siposs).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP