Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(5:00) 8-A.Siposs punts 57 yards to KC 22, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 34 for 12 yards (89-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model