4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP